Forum

  • Locked

Forum » The Panel » u.s. recession?

Rating: 5 stars
5.00 (based on 4 votes)
Goto Page (5): « 1 2 3 4 5 »
Quick Goto:
Posts per page:
#12 Posted by EricLindros on 03:22 AM 11/18/2008


Posts: 17337
Here's what needs to happen:

1. Let the automakers file for bankruptcy.
2. Let the bankruptcy courts break the union contracts and tell the UAW to STFU and be happy with competitive wages, not exorbinant ones.
3. Let the PBGC take over the pension obligations of the automakers, getting that crap off their books.
4. Let the automakers continue to produce cars while in bankruptcy. This is a given. All this talk of millions of job losses is ridiculous. That's only if all three go down and shutter all of their manufacturing capacity immediately. That won't happen.
5. Fire Rick Wagoner, Allen Mulally and Bob Nardelli. They've obviously shown they have an inability to anticipate changes and modify production in the industry.
6. Loosen crash and EPA standards, allowing for the sale of more turbo-diesel vehicles and smaller compact vehicles that are successfully sold in Europe.
7. Let the market sort the rest out.


Quote:
Originally posted by Stimpy57

...

If taxpayers can afford to give $700B to scumbag bankers/hedge fund managers/brokers, then by all means give $25B to Detroit. A failing auto industry will have a much more profound affect on the economy than the banking industry. Millions of jobs, scattered all across the country, are at stake. The ripple effect would be tremendous.


I think that you're underestimating the role banks, and the credit markets specifically, play in the economy. They're still in poor shape, but it really would have been quite a mess had that reliquification of the banking system not taken place.

That being said, i also don't think the taxpayers could afford to give $850 billsky to Wall Street, and we'll face, in the not too distant future, the results of debasing the currency. Obviously, this will happen after the current round of deflation is over, but it will happen. Credit default spreads for US treasuries, basically insurance against default of the US on its debt obligations, is currently at the levels Thailand and Mexico were at prior to the credit freeze.

Basically, I'm saying the government needs to stop bailing everyone out and let the pieces fall where they may. The pain now will be difficult, but by artificially postponing it they're only making the inevitable fall much worse.
  *EL's Epic Slammy List* | "You'd better get it straight that it's not a bunch of boy scouts you're up against -- then you'll know that this is not the age for beautiful gestures. We're after power and we mean it. Your fellows were pikers, but we know the real trick, and you'd better get wise to it. There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. Who wants a nation of law-abiding citizens? What's there in that for anyone? But just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted - and you create a nation of law-breakers -- and then you cash in on guilt. Now that's the system...that's the game, and once you understand it, you'll be easier to deal with." - Ayn Rand
#13 Posted by SyPTo on 04:10 AM 11/18/2008


Posts: 191
Quote:
Originally posted by Stimpy57

...

I agree, though, that Detroit fed at the Big Truck/Big Suv trough for waaay too long and should've had the foresight to plan ahead. Good ol' 20/20 hindsight.


Suv's and pick-up sales have been down for the past 4 years...not just since the economy went bad.yet they almost keep producing the same numbers every year.you can litterly buy a brand new 2008 SUV for almost at cost or under it... they are practically giving away suv's and big pick-ups.
  -= Of all the things i lost , i miss my mind the most =-
-= #4 The Goat , the best there was and will be =-
-= Avatar by Honda=-
#14 Posted by phlux on 04:24 AM 11/18/2008


Posts: 358
Quote:
Originally posted by SyPTo

...

Suv's and pick-up sales have been down for the past 4 years...not just since the economy went bad.yet they almost keep producing the same numbers every year.you can litterly buy a brand new 2008 SUV for almost at cost or under it... they are practically giving away suv's and big pick-ups.


its true. even here i've seen 08' silverados for like 19gs. that's fuckin' crazy cheap...
#15 Posted by PancakeSteve on 04:48 AM 11/18/2008


Posts: 32
Quote:
Originally posted by SyPTo

...

Suv's and pick-up sales have been down for the past 4 years...not just since the economy went bad.yet they almost keep producing the same numbers every year.you can litterly buy a brand new 2008 SUV for almost at cost or under it... they are practically giving away suv's and big pick-ups.


That's not entirely true. The Ford F150 and the Chevy Silverado were consistently outselling everything but the Toyota Camry. Ford and GM put a lot of stock into vehicles that WERE selling well. It wasn't easy to predict that volatility of gas prices and the resulting plummet of big-vehicle sales. Were GM and Ford at fault? Yes. But had they not been producing the trucks that were selling so well, people would have wondered what the hell was wrong with them.

Also, there are bigger problems than just putting a lot of stock into vehicles that don't sell now. The legacy costs, poor/mismanagement and really, their current company structure are also really screwing them. I'm really on the fence about the bailout... though, from what I know, GM just wants a loan, not a "bailout." Regardless, as it was said, where DOES it end, if the government bails out the big three? The government shouldn't be sticking its nose into everything. On the other hand, the effect of the big three going under will be huge. While there is no definite number, they estimate that roughly 2.6 million people will be unemployed if they go under. That's a lot of unemployment to pay, and the economy will surely suffer for it -furthering our recession, because those 2.6 million or so people sure as hell wont be buying anything but essentials for a while.
#16 Posted by SyPTo on 05:08 AM 11/18/2008


Posts: 191
Quote:
Originally posted by PancakeSteve

...

That's not entirely true. The Ford F150 and the Chevy Silverado were consistently outselling everything but the Toyota Camry. Ford and GM put a lot of stock into vehicles that WERE selling well. It wasn't easy to predict that volatility of gas prices and the resulting plummet of big-vehicle sales. Were GM and Ford at fault? Yes. But had they not been producing the trucks that were selling so well, people would have wondered what the hell was wrong with them.

Also, there are bigger problems than just putting a lot of stock into vehicles that don't sell now. The legacy costs, poor/mismanagement and really, their current company structure are also really screwing them. I'm really on the fence about the bailout... though, from what I know, GM just wants a loan, not a "bailout." Regardless, as it was said, where DOES it end, if the government bails out the big three? The government shouldn't be sticking its nose into everything. On the other hand, the effect of the big three going under will be huge. While there is no definite number, they estimate that roughly 2.6 million people will be unemployed if they go under. That's a lot of unemployment to pay, and the economy will surely suffer for it -furthering our recession, because those 2.6 million or so people sure as hell wont be buying anything but essentials for a while.


you know it's just not the 2.6 million loosing their jobs , people don't realize how much impact the big 3 have on the economy just because they are so huge in size... in understand your stance , and i loan i could deal with , but just giving them money isn't going to solve their problem , i think they need to restructure a lot of their current policies to keep their companies from loosing those amounts of money or we will be loaning them more money in 6 months.

to come back on the impact the big 3 have , think of 3rd party companies that supply products to the factories , such as oil ,antifreeze , copper wire , the list goes on and on ...raw materials...all those factories would suffer tremendously......then we go one step further and go to the transportation industry , since all those parts , merchandise and raw materials as well as finished product will have to be moves by 18 wheelers...

just don't think that banks have that much more of an direct impact then 3 large factories , the ripple effect on a factory is bigger then you think.
  -= Of all the things i lost , i miss my mind the most =-
-= #4 The Goat , the best there was and will be =-
-= Avatar by Honda=-
#17 Posted by EricLindros on 05:16 AM 11/18/2008


Posts: 17337
Quote:
Originally posted by SyPTo

...

you know it's just not the 2.6 million loosing their jobs , people don't realize how much impact the big 3 have on the economy just because they are so huge in size... in understand your stance , and i loan i could deal with , but just giving them money isn't going to solve their problem , i think they need to restructure a lot of their current policies to keep their companies from loosing those amounts of money or we will be loaning them more money in 6 months.

to come back on the impact the big 3 have , think of 3rd party companies that supply products to the factories , such as oil ,antifreeze , copper wire , the list goes on and on ...raw materials...all those factories would suffer tremendously......then we go one step further and go to the transportation industry , since all those parts , merchandise and raw materials as well as finished product will have to be moves by 18 wheelers...

just don't think that banks have that much more of an direct impact then 3 large factories , the ripple effect on a factory is bigger then you think.


First, every piece of business that goes on in the world is based on the availability of credit. Without credit, trade grinds to a halt, businesses are unable to purchase products, consumers are unable to purchase products, the economy, as we know it, grinds to a fucking halt. This is not a scenario that people really want to see, and the $800B was intended, and did, to some extent, to loosen up the credit markets which were on the verge of collapsing on themselves.

Second, can we stop with the 2,600,000 unemployed, or whatever the number is, already? As I said in my last post here, Chapter 11 bankruptcy DOES NOT MEAN closing up shop and laying off every employee. You go to bankruptcy court and are able to renegotiate contracts, refinance loans, and generally restructure the company so that it may emerge from bankruptcy more likely to be profitable. This is exactly why Chapter 11 exists, and why they would not be filing under Chapter 7, which is a complete liquidation of all assets.
  *EL's Epic Slammy List* | "You'd better get it straight that it's not a bunch of boy scouts you're up against -- then you'll know that this is not the age for beautiful gestures. We're after power and we mean it. Your fellows were pikers, but we know the real trick, and you'd better get wise to it. There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. Who wants a nation of law-abiding citizens? What's there in that for anyone? But just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted - and you create a nation of law-breakers -- and then you cash in on guilt. Now that's the system...that's the game, and once you understand it, you'll be easier to deal with." - Ayn Rand
#18 Posted by PancakeSteve on 04:41 AM 11/19/2008


Posts: 32
Quote:
Originally posted by EricLindros

...

First, every piece of business that goes on in the world is based on the availability of credit. Without credit, trade grinds to a halt, businesses are unable to purchase products, consumers are unable to purchase products, the economy, as we know it, grinds to a fucking halt. This is not a scenario that people really want to see, and the $800B was intended, and did, to some extent, to loosen up the credit markets which were on the verge of collapsing on themselves.

Second, can we stop with the 2,600,000 unemployed, or whatever the number is, already? As I said in my last post here, Chapter 11 bankruptcy DOES NOT MEAN closing up shop and laying off every employee. You go to bankruptcy court and are able to renegotiate contracts, refinance loans, and generally restructure the company so that it may emerge from bankruptcy more likely to be profitable. This is exactly why Chapter 11 exists, and why they would not be filing under Chapter 7, which is a complete liquidation of all assets.


The X million people who would go unemployed is only germane to the big three going under completely. I may be mistaken, but I believe GM has stated they will not declare bankruptcy. They may rescind this declaration, but really... bankruptcy would only further destroy the image GM has. Something they really can't afford. (Though, this is really conjecture on my part.)I can only speak for myself, but I was aware of the basic provisions of Chapter 11. And honestly, regardless of what happens, be it bankruptcy or a loan or a bailout, I think a Chapter 11-restructuring is highly necessary. Akin to that, the UAW contracts need to be renegotiated, and legacy costs need to be cut -- as much as it would suck for those relying on them.
#19 Posted by Mr.Poop on 09:07 AM 11/19/2008


Posts: 6094
after 30 years of producing junk now we are supposed to bail these cocksuckers out? fuck em let them die.fucking gm.
  THE TRUTH ABOUT WAL*MART!
http://wakeupwalmart.com/facts/#Wal-Mart
#20 Posted by SyPTo on 09:17 PM 11/19/2008


Posts: 191
Quote:
Originally posted by PancakeSteve

...

That's not entirely true. The Ford F150 and the Chevy Silverado were consistently outselling everything but the Toyota Camry.


I'm not sure about Ford , but GM hasn't turned a profit in over 2 years..they may outsell any other car make and model , but it does no good if your not turning a profit, isn't this a corner stone of a business ? , GM burns thru 2 billion dollars a month , and from the interviews i seen on TV they have no intention of filing any chapter , not even chapter 11 , they say that they where already restructuring their business , and that the credit crisis did them under...yet they haven't had a profit in 2 years.
  -= Of all the things i lost , i miss my mind the most =-
-= #4 The Goat , the best there was and will be =-
-= Avatar by Honda=-
#21 Posted by rocknthefreeworld on 09:36 PM 11/19/2008


Posts: 5502
The automakers should be forced to file bankruptcy and the only government involvement would be to guarantee loans during the debt restructuring if no suitable lenders could be found. The problem with the US auto industry is two-fold, bad management and horrible union contracts. Both of those will still exist after a bail-out, but during a bankruptcy the judge can throw out the union contracts or restructure them as well as force current management out. If the government does do a full bailout then the companies will just survive a little longer until they collapse completely. Right now they have the capability to survive but need to be forced to change their business model to do so.
  Hell ain't a bad place to be - Bon Scott
Tragedy is when I cut my finger. Comedy is when you walk into an open sewer and die. - Mel Brooks
Alcohol doesn't solve any problems, but then again, neither does milk.
Goto Page (5): « 1 2 3 4 5 »
Quick Goto:
Jump to forum:

Posting Rules

You may download: 0 MB (Login to download)

Attachments: Enabled

You may upload: 512 MB (MegaBytes)

Locked